Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Economist: 'Bradley Effect' Could Doom Obama

This, from the VoxEU site: "Should Barack Obama worry about the Bradley effect? The much-discussed effect refers to observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes, in which African-American candidates receive a smaller vote share than would be predicted using opinion polls. In this column, I study US congressional and gubernatorial contests from 1998 to 2006 – black candidates on average receive a 2-3% lower share of the two-party vote than non-black candidates with similar numbers in the polls. If an effect of a similar size would appear in the current presidential race, then it would lower Obama’s probability of winning from 85% to 53%."

20 comments:

Intrade said...

bpvpnb said :

    The difference this time around is the record number of new voters who have not been counted in "likely voter" models. They will more than offset any Bradley effect.

Intrade said...

Damon said :

    Seriously? The Bradley Effect? The Bradley Effect is a MYTH!!!

In this election, there are no serious "racial identity" issues in play (as much as the McCain campaign implicitly tried to make it one) which would negate the "Bradley Effect". Couple that with the fact that Obama has been able to encourage minorities to vote who didn't in the past and if anything, there is the greater possibility of an anti-"Bradley Effect".

Intrade said...

fallicy said :

    Pethokoukis has a stake in the election as a Heritage Foundation far right-wing GOP type.

Cool that he won on Jeopardy though. Obviously the man isn't a fool. He's just being disingenuous.

Any "Bradley effect" in recent elections would be due to bad voting machines and other shenanigans - not latent racism.

Intrade said...

DS in NJ said :

    Pethokoukis is setting up the "cover story" for GOP election fraud.

Intrade said...

Damon said :

    Also, how the F did James get 53% (or for that matter 85%)? That would imply that McCain has a lot more options than just the one of trying to hold every Bush 2004 state. Electoral-vote.com had Obama holding commanding leads in several states with their electoral votes totaling 264 (and these are just the strongly Democrat states). This means that Obama only has to win one more state (even if it's just Nevada to get to 269 and a tie-breaker in the Congress) to win. McCain needs to win ALL of the non-strongly Democrat states to win and in some of these states, he's behind.

Also, James is using the Intrade markets to predict % of victory. 85% is way too low at this stage. Fivethirtyeight.com has Obama at 98% to win the election. 85% is what the market is telling but the Intrade markets are not as efficient as James would like to believe.

Intrade said...

markc said :

    98% of black Americans today are voting today for someone based upon the color of his skin. And 100% of organized voter fraud (Wisconsin/ Philly, Chicago) that is happening today is happening in Democratic strongholds, primarily African-American cities.

Intrade said...

Damon said :

    markc, 98% of black Americans today are voting today for someone based upon the fact that 1) he's a Democrat and 2) Bush is a FAILURE! Hilary Clinton would get these high numbers too even though she would be less likely to encourage new voters in this community.

BTW, you know that markc is an idiot when he types 100%. Unless it's a definition, nothing is 100%.

Intrade said...

rrj22 said :

    ...another out of touch GOP'er grasping for the days of yesteryear (in this case yester-decade). Acquiesce the passing of the old (tired) Eisenhower white male grip on the power levels in peace and dignity. Or at least take solace that he's at least half white.

Intrade said...

spy said :

    markc - you sound bitter. lol - love it

Intrade said...

Me said :

    This is, in all seriousness, a very stupid empirical study. The author doesn't even try to give an identification strategy. Whatever weak effect he found would be completely washed away by omitted variables. I can't believe he didn't even have state fixed effects or something.

Intrade said...

fallicy said :

    MarcC - registration fraud isn't voter fraud. Mickey Mouse and Tony Romo aren't gonna show up to vote in Ohio. That was temporary workers trying to get paid $8 an hour who got lazy. It's not a threat to democracy.

It's just part of the smoke screen... ACORN committing massive fraud, and this Bradley Effect nonsense are put into the public consciousness so that people overlook the fact that 5 or 6 million votes WILL NOT BE COUNTED due to systematic disenfranchisement.

The reason why intrade numbers lag behind FiveThirtyEight numbers is that Nate Silver is following polls that assume all the votes will be counted. Intrade, because they have money riding on this, takes into consideration the effects of cheating and of undervotes, voter caging, etc.

It's a testament to the enthusiasm behind the Obama campaign, and the organization thereof, that intrade has his winning percentage at 93%. That means that the margins and turnout in his favour will completely trounce the effects of the ACTUAL fraud that is taking place.

Intrade said...

Stats said :

    RIGHT ON

Intrade said...

5220 said :

    "If an effect of a similar size would appear in the current presidential race, then it would lower Obama’s probability of winning from 85% to 53."

How can you assume the 85% has not already accounted for the potential Bradley effect?

Intrade said...

blahblah said :

    What about the effect of having ties to someone who bombed the Pentagon and to multiple anti-American, anti-Semitic, racist and anti-capitalist radicals? That will have a much greater effect than the Bradley/Wilder effect.

Intrade said...

bvllets said :

    PArty

Intrade said...

AA^ said :

    You know what, I think there WOULD HAVE been a Bradley effect, were it not for Palin. People who are tempted to vote for McCain in the booth will be kept from doing so by the fact that Palin is the VP on the ticket. She is simply unacceptable.

Intrade said...

paralegal onpoint said :

    There is strength in numbers! When your pockets are in jeopardy of staying empty, it's amazing how the only color that matters is Green!

Intrade said...

Cindy said :

    Money can buy you anything even a election

Intrade said...

Damon said :

    OK James, have some humble pie and accept that pretty much anyone can do the type of analysis you claim you do.

Intrade said...

Howid said :

    Um, I think you forgot to calculate the Obama effect: an inspiration to millions of Americans who have never voted before. Result: Landslide.